A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
